Division 23 of 25 · Failure Database

Reliability & Failure Trend Analysis

The analytical and statistical intelligence layer of the AGL Failure Database. Divisions 01–20 classify the failure, Division 21 establishes root cause, and Division 22 determines severity and criticality. Division 23 converts all of those records into reliability statistics, trends, comparisons, hotspots and management decisions — built around measurable, repeatable data rather than subjective assessment.

24 / 24
Topics Published
REL-01 → 24
Reference ID Range
4 Groups
Metrics · Time · Population · Intelligence
Rev 0
Initial Issue

Core logic — Failure Data → Reliability Metrics → Trend Analysis → Hotspot Identification → Reliability Decision → Corrective/Preventive Action → Trend Verification. Division 23 should not simply produce charts — it should answer whether the AGL system is becoming more reliable, where the weaknesses are, what is recurring, which products are underperforming, and whether corrective action actually worked.

FAILURE DATA RELIABILITY METRICS TREND ANALYSIS HOTSPOT ID. RELIABILITY DECISION CORRECTIVE/PREVENTIVE ACTION TREND VERIFICATION

A. Reliability Metrics

10 topics
A
Core Reliability Metrics
10 topics
REL-01Failure Frequency
Definition

The number of recorded failures during a defined period.

Example

If 18 runway-light failures occur during one month: Monthly failure frequency = 18 failures.

Analysis Can Be Performed By
  • Equipment
  • Circuit
  • Component
  • Airport
  • Location
  • Failure mode
  • Supplier
  • Month/year
Important Distinction

Failure frequency is an absolute count. It should not automatically be interpreted as poor reliability without considering the size of the installed population and operating exposure.

REL-02Failure Rate
Definition

The rate at which failures occur relative to the relevant exposure or population.

Formula
Failure Rate = Number of Failures / Exposure

Depending on the analysis, exposure may be number of installed units, operating hours, circuit-hours, equipment-hours or maintenance periods.

Example

1,000 fixtures installed, 20 failures occur during a defined period → 20 / 1,000 = 2%. The database should clearly identify the denominator used.

REL-03MTBF — Mean Time Between Failures
Definition

Average operating time between failures for a repairable system/equipment population under the defined calculation method.

Formula
MTBF = Total Operating Time / Number of Relevant Failures
Example

A group of CCRs provides 20,000 operating hours and experiences 10 relevant failures → MTBF = 2,000 hours.

Track By
  • CCR
  • Fixture
  • Transformer
  • Circuit
  • Component
  • Product
  • Airport
Important

The calculation methodology must remain consistent. Do not mix different populations or exposure definitions without clearly identifying them.

REL-04MTTR — Mean Time To Repair
Definition

Average time required to restore failed equipment to service.

Formula
MTTR = Total Repair Time / Number of Repaired Failures
Track Separately Where Useful
  • Detection-to-response time
  • Troubleshooting time
  • Repair time
  • Testing time
  • Return-to-service time
Why It Matters

Two systems can have the same failure rate but very different operational reliability if one takes significantly longer to restore.

REL-05Downtime
Definition

The period for which an equipment/system function remains unavailable or degraded due to a failure.

Record
  • Failure start
  • Detection
  • Response
  • Repair
  • Testing
  • Return to service
  • Total downtime
Analyse
  • Total downtime
  • Average downtime
  • Maximum downtime
  • Downtime by equipment
  • Downtime by failure mode
  • Downtime by airport
REL-06Equipment Availability
Definition

The proportion of time equipment is available for its intended function.

Formula
Availability = Uptime / (Uptime + Downtime)

or, under corresponding assumptions: Availability ≈ MTBF / (MTBF + MTTR).

Track By
  • CCR
  • PAPI
  • AGL fixture
  • Sign
  • Control system
  • Other critical equipment
Important

Availability should be calculated using a clearly defined measurement period and downtime convention.

REL-07Circuit Availability
Definition

A separate, AGL-specific metric: the availability of an AGL series circuit or lighting circuit for its intended operational function.

Track
  • Circuit ID
  • Operating hours
  • Failure events
  • Circuit downtime
  • Number of affected fixtures
  • CCR condition
  • Circuit availability percentage
Why It Matters

A single fixture failure and a complete circuit failure have very different operational consequences. Circuit availability therefore provides a more meaningful system-level reliability indicator than fixture-level counts alone.

REL-08Repeat-Failure Rate
Definition

The proportion of failures involving equipment/components that fail repeatedly after previous repair or replacement.

Example

100 failures recorded, 15 are repeat failures → Repeat-failure rate = 15%.

Important

Define what constitutes a repeat failure — same asset, same component, same failure mode, within a defined period — and keep that definition consistent across the database.

REL-09First-Time-Fix Rate
Definition

The percentage of maintenance interventions where the failure is successfully corrected during the first intervention without requiring a repeat visit for the same issue.

Example

100 maintenance interventions: 85 resolved first time, 15 required repeat intervention → First-time-fix rate = 85%.

A Low Rate May Indicate
  • Poor troubleshooting
  • Inadequate diagnostics
  • Spare-part problems
  • Documentation deficiencies
  • Training gaps
  • Difficult access
  • Incomplete testing
REL-10Failure Severity Trend
Definition

Tracks how the severity distribution changes over time.

Example
PeriodCriticalMajorModerateMinorDegradation
Q128203512
Q216183115
Q314152822
The Important Question

Not simply “are failures increasing?” but also “are the failures becoming more or less serious?”

B. Time-Based Trend Analysis

3 topics
B
Monthly, Quarterly & Annual Trend
3 topics
REL-11Monthly Failure Trend
Definition

Track failures month-by-month, from January through December, to identify sudden increases or improvements.

Minimum Fields
  • Month
  • Total failures
  • Critical failures
  • Major failures
  • Repeat failures
  • Downtime
  • MTTR
  • MTBF
REL-12Quarterly Failure Trend
Definition

Group data into Q1–Q4. Useful for management review, reliability reporting, supplier review, maintenance planning and project performance review. Quarterly analysis also reduces excessive noise from individual monthly variations.

REL-13Annual Failure Trend
Definition

Compare year over year (e.g. 2026 → 2027 → 2028).

Track
  • Failure count
  • Failure rate
  • MTBF
  • MTTR
  • Availability
  • Repeat-failure rate
  • Critical failures
  • Total downtime
Key Objective

Determine whether overall AGL reliability is improving → stable → deteriorating.

C. Population & Comparative Analysis

7 topics
C
Population & Comparative Analysis
7 topics
REL-14Equipment-Wise Trend
Definition

Analyse reliability by equipment category — runway fixtures, taxiway fixtures, CCRs, isolation transformers, PAPI, signs, approach lighting, stop bars, RGLs, ALCMS/control systems.

Questions
  • Which equipment has the highest failure rate?
  • Which has the lowest MTBF?
  • Which generates the most downtime?
  • Which has the highest repeat-failure rate?
REL-15Airport-Wise Trend
Definition

Compare reliability across airports using failures, failure rate, MTBF, MTTR and availability side by side.

Important

Raw failure counts should not be used alone — a larger airport with thousands of AGL assets will naturally generate more failures than a small airport. Compare normalized metrics where appropriate.

REL-16Component-Wise Trend
Definition

Analyse failures by component — LED module, LED driver, isolation transformer, connector, cable, CCR component, PAPI component, sign component.

Identify
  • Highest failure count
  • Highest failure rate
  • Lowest MTBF
  • Highest repeat-failure rate
  • Highest downtime contribution
Cross-Reference

This directly supports Division 19 — Product & Component Reliability Failures.

REL-17Environmental Trend
Definition

Analyse failure occurrence against environmental conditions — temperature, rainfall, humidity, flooding, sand/dust, salt exposure, lightning, storms, UV exposure.

Example

Heavy rainfall period → increase in moisture ingress, connector failures, transformer failures, base-can water accumulation. This can reveal environmental correlations not visible in normal failure counts.

REL-18Seasonal Trend
Definition

Compare failures by season or defined operational/environmental period — pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter, summer. The exact classification can be adapted to the airport location.

Objective

Identify whether particular failure modes increase during particular periods.

REL-19Supplier/Component Trend
Definition

Analyse failure performance by manufacturer, supplier, product family, model, part number or batch.

Key Questions
  • Which supplier has the highest normalized failure rate?
  • Which product has the lowest MTBF?
  • Are failures concentrated in one batch?
  • Is a specific component repeatedly failing?
  • Has product reliability improved after a supplier corrective action?
Direct Link

Division 19 → Division 23.

REL-20Repeat-Failure Trend
Definition

Track repeat failures over time.

Example

Q1 → 12 repeat failures  ·  Q2 → 15  ·  Q3 → 8  ·  Q4 → 5. A declining trend may indicate successful corrective actions.

Analyse By
  • Asset
  • Component
  • Failure mode
  • Root cause
  • Supplier
  • Maintenance team
  • Airport

D. Advanced Failure Intelligence

4 topics
D
Hotspots & Rankings
4 topics
REL-21Failure Hotspot Analysis
Definition

Identify physical or functional areas with unusually high failure concentration — a runway section, taxiway, circuit, CCR, base-can area, lighting zone, equipment room, or an entire airport.

Example Chain
LOCATIONENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONCIVIL INTERFACECABLE/CONNECTORFAILURE TREND

If failures repeatedly occur in one runway sector, this chain can reveal an underlying common cause.

REL-22Top Recurring Failures
Definition

Create a ranked list of the most frequently recurring failure modes — e.g. connector high-resistance failure, LED driver failure, moisture ingress, cable insulation deterioration, fixture alignment issue. The actual ranking must come from the database.

Management Use

Becomes the basis for preventive maintenance priorities, spare planning, product review, engineering improvements and training priorities.

REL-23Top Critical Failures
Definition

Rank failures based on criticality, safety impact, operational impact, downtime and recurrence — e.g. critical runway lighting failures, PAPI failures, stop-bar failures, multiple circuit failures, major CCR failures, critical control-system failures.

Cross-Reference

Connects directly to Division 22 — Failure Severity & Criticality.

REL-24Top Unreliable Components
Definition

Create a ranking based on normalized reliability, not simply failure count.

Potential Indicators
  • Failure rate
  • MTBF
  • Repeat-failure rate
  • Downtime
  • Criticality
  • Number of installed units
  • Operating hours
Example Output
RankComponentFailure RateMTBFRepeat RateCriticality
1Component A———High
2Component B———Moderate
3Component C———High
No topics match your search.

Division-Wide Requirements

Division 23 is the analytics layer over the entire Failure Database — it does not stand alone. These division-wide references define how the metrics above feed a management reliability dashboard.

A. Failure Trend Dashboard — Recommended Sections

Since the source framework specifically targets failure-trend dashboards, Division 23 should ultimately produce a management dashboard built from eight sections:

01
Overall Reliability
  • Total failures
  • Failure rate
  • MTBF / MTTR
  • Availability
  • Total downtime
02
Criticality
  • Critical failures
  • Major failures
  • Safety-critical failures
  • Operationally critical failures
03
Failure Trend
  • Monthly failures
  • Quarterly failures
  • Annual trend
  • Repeat-failure trend
04
Equipment
  • Equipment-wise failures
  • Equipment-wise MTBF
  • Equipment availability
05
Components
  • Top unreliable components
  • Component failure rate
  • Component repeat failures
06
Location
  • Airport-wise trend
  • Runway/taxiway hotspots
  • Circuit hotspots
07
Environment
  • Seasonal trend
  • Environmental correlation
08
Supplier
  • Supplier/component trend
  • Batch failures
  • Product reliability

B. Recommended Core KPI Set

For senior management, a core KPI dashboard containing the following:

KPIPurpose
Total Failure CountOverall failure burden
Failure RateNormalized reliability
MTBFReliability
MTTRMaintainability
Total DowntimeOperational consequence
Equipment AvailabilityEquipment performance
Circuit AvailabilityAGL system performance
Repeat-Failure RateRecurring problem indicator
First-Time-Fix RateMaintenance effectiveness
Critical Failure CountRisk indicator
Safety-Critical Failure CountSafety indicator
Top Failure ModePriority improvement area
Top Unreliable ComponentProduct priority
Top Failure HotspotLocation priority

C. Failure Trend Analysis Workflow

1. COLLECT (DIV 01–20) 2. VALIDATE 3. LINK RCA (DIV 21) 4. APPLY CRITICALITY (DIV 22) 5. CALCULATE METRICS 6. TREND 7. IDENTIFY HOTSPOTS 8. CORRECTIVE ACTION 9. VERIFY IMPROVEMENT

Step 2 — Validate checks for duplicate records, missing dates, missing asset IDs, incorrect classifications, missing downtime and missing failure status.

Step 6 — Trend analyses monthly, quarterly, annual, equipment, component, airport, environment and supplier dimensions.

Step 9 — Verify compares pre-action and post-action reliability.

D. Data Quality Rule

Data quality is critical for Division 23. Before calculating reliability statistics, ensure the required minimum data is present:

  • Asset ID
  • Equipment type
  • Failure date
  • Failure mode
  • Operating population
  • Operating period/exposure
  • Repair/return-to-service date
  • Failure severity
  • Root cause where available

Without these, some metrics can be misleading — 20 failures at Airport A cannot be meaningfully compared with 10 failures at Airport B unless the relative asset population and/or exposure is known.

E. Reliability Trend Interpretation

A good Division 23 analysis should answer five questions:

1. What is failing most often?
Failure frequency / failure rate
2. What is failing repeatedly?
Repeat-failure rate / recurring-failure trend
3. What is failing most seriously?
Severity / criticality trend
4. What is taking the longest to restore?
MTTR / downtime
5. Where should engineering effort be focused?
Hotspot + criticality + recurrence + reliability trend

This prevents management from focusing only on the largest number of failures.

F. Connection With Divisions 01–22

Division 23 is the analytics layer over the entire database:

DIV 01–20: WHAT FAILED? DIV 21: WHY DID IT FAIL? DIV 22: HOW SERIOUS WAS IT? DIV 23: WHAT IS THE RELIABILITY TREND? ENGINEERING / MAINTENANCE / SUPPLIER / PRODUCT DECISIONS

Division 23 also asks: what keeps failing, where is it happening, which components/products are unreliable, and is reliability improving.

Division 23 vs. Divisions 01–22

Divisions 01–20 classify individual failures, Division 21 explains why each one happened, and Division 22 rates how serious it was. Division 23 does not add new failure records — it converts the accumulated records into reliability statistics, trends, hotspots and rankings, and feeds a management dashboard that answers whether the AGL system is becoming more reliable, where the weaknesses are, and whether corrective actions actually worked. This makes Division 23 the performance-intelligence layer of the entire AGL Failure Database, and the foundation for predictive reliability, maintenance optimization and risk-based maintenance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Quick answers about reliability metrics and failure-trend analysis, as covered in Division 23 of the AGL Failure Database.

Q1What is Division 23 — Reliability & Failure Trend Analysis in the AGL Failure Database?

Division 23 is the reliability statistics and failure-trend intelligence layer. It contains 24 published topics (REL-01 to REL-24) covering failure frequency, failure rate, MTBF, MTTR, downtime, availability, repeat-failure rate, monthly, quarterly and annual trends, hotspot analysis and top unreliable component rankings, and feeds a management-level reliability dashboard.

Q2How are the 24 reliability topics grouped?

They fall into four groups: Core Reliability Metrics (10 topics), Monthly, Quarterly & Annual Trend (3), Population & Comparative Analysis (7) and Hotspots & Rankings (4).

Q3Does Division 23 add new failure records?

No. Divisions 01–20 classify individual failures, Division 21 explains why each happened and Division 22 rates how serious it was. Division 23 converts those accumulated records into reliability statistics, trends, hotspots and rankings.

Q4Which core KPIs does the management dashboard use?

The core KPI set includes total failure count, failure rate, MTBF, MTTR, total downtime, equipment availability, circuit availability, repeat-failure rate, first-time-fix rate, critical failure count, safety-critical failure count, top failure mode, top unreliable component and top failure hotspot.

Q5What workflow does failure-trend analysis follow?

The workflow has nine steps: collect data from Divisions 01–20, validate, link RCA (Division 21), apply criticality (Division 22), calculate metrics, trend, identify hotspots, take corrective action and verify improvement. Validation checks for duplicate records, missing dates, missing asset IDs, incorrect classifications, missing downtime and missing failure status.

Q6What data is needed before reliability statistics are calculated?

Data quality is critical. The minimum data includes asset ID, equipment type, failure date, failure mode, operating population, operating period or exposure, repair or return-to-service date, failure severity and root cause where available. Without these, some metrics can be misleading, because 20 failures at one airport cannot be compared with 10 at another unless asset population or exposure is taken into account.

Q7What questions should a good reliability analysis answer?

Five: what is failing most often (frequency and rate), what is failing repeatedly (repeat-failure rate and trend), what is failing most seriously (severity and criticality trend), what is taking the longest to restore (MTTR and downtime) and where engineering effort should be focused (hotspot, criticality, recurrence and reliability trend together).

Beyond the Trend Chart

DON’T JUST PLOT THE DATA. UNDERSTAND WHAT IT'S TELLING YOU.

A rising failure trend on one component type usually has an engineering explanation — a batch issue, an environmental factor, an installation practice — real reliability analysis means understanding AGL systems well enough to find it.

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